The Domino Theory

                    You have a row of dominoes set up, and you knock over the first one
                    and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over
                    very quickly.  So you have the beginning of a disintegration that will have
                    the most profound influences.

                                                                                --- President Dwight D. Eisenhower

In 1949, Mao Zedong led the communist victory over Chiang Kai-shek and established the People's Republic of China.  Communism was spreading and had now engulfed the largest country in Asia.  The United States quickly developed a policy of containing China, fearing their influence would spread.  In 1950, President Truman decided to aid France in their war with the Vietminh in an effort to contain China, and his administration believed that Ho Chi Minh was a mere puppet of the Chinese.  After France lost its war with the Vietminh, the Geneva Peace Accords divided Vietnam at the 17th parallel, and countrywide elections were to occur in 1956 so the people could determine which form of government they preferred.  Recognizing that Communists had already infiltrated the south and that the elections would likely be corrupt, the United States refused to sign the agreement.

The U.S. foresaw the improbability of containing Chinese Communist influence in Southeast Asia if the southern half of Vietnam were to fall.  The belief, as stated by President Eisenhower, was that once South Vietnam fell, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, and India were sure to fall as well.  There was no telling when or where the domino would stop.  With the Soviet Union rapidly developing nuclear weapons and China spreading its influence, there were many who believed that the Communists would someday land in the United States.  (Enter Joe McCarthy.)

In earlier sections of this unit I’ve noted the importance of understanding the history and culture of Vietnam.  For 1,000 years China ruled Vietnam, and her influence was still felt after World War II.  China and Vietnam had ancient antagonisms that have lasted for 2,000 years.  While Communism was a common feature among the two nations, their dislike for each other was still apparent.  However, when western nations such as France and the United States got involved in Vietnam they merely served to unite China and Vietnam.

Just as we wanted to contain China, they wanted to contain us.  Along with the Soviet Union, China became a major supplier of materiel throughout the Vietnam wars with both France and the United States.  Neither China nor the United States wanted a World War, so a Cold War battle was fought in Vietnam.  China liked the fact the United States was bogged down in a war in Vietnam, so much so that they reduced their aid to Vietnam when peace negotiations began in 1968.
The United States had drawn a line in the sand at the 17th parallel in Vietnam.

Obviously, the war did not go well for the United States and Richard Nixon was removing troops with a rapidly arriving end date of 1973.  President Richard Nixon knew the war was lost.  But what to do?  How could he lose the war and yet still appear to have negotiated for peace with honor while pulling our troops out before a peace settlement?   More importantly, how could he stop the dominoes from falling in Southeast Asia?

On February 21, 1972 President Nixon landed in Beijing for talks with Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, China’s prime minister.  This incredible trip to China reopened the antagonisms between China and Vietnam as the North Vietnamese felt betrayed.  China’s actions after the meeting seemed paradoxical as they pushed the political leaders of North Vietnam to move the peace talks forward, while at the same time increasing their aid.  China felt the need not to abandon Vietnam because relations between China and the Soviet Union were deteriorating.  China did not want the Soviet Union to exploit the ancient animosity between Vietnam and China, which would give China two potentially dangerous neighbors to its east and south.  As confusing as it may sound, China who had wanted to bleed the United States dry, now realized she needed more open relations with a strong United States to balance the influence of the Soviet Union.  Hence, her trap and paradoxical actions.

Meanwhile, the economy of the Soviet Union was being hurt by its massive aid to the Vietnamese and President Nixon knew it.  President Nixon, who took a more global approach to the problem in Vietnam, was about to visit the Soviet Union. North Vietnam’s Easter Offensive in 1972 across the DMZ violated the spirit of the peace initiative and the United States willingness to remove its troops.  The offensive also preceded Nixon’s trip to the Soviet Union.  Henry Kissinger and other advisers warned Nixon not to respond to North Vietnam’s offensive for fear the Soviet Union might cancel their very important arms talks, but an infuriated Nixon instead unleashed massive bombing raids in North Vietnam.  It was President Nixon’s belief that he needed to show strength so that he could negotiate from a position of strength. Nixon’s move proved to be right as the Soviet’s did not cancel the talks. During his meetings with the Soviet Union, President Nixon signed an arms reduction treaty and pushed the Soviet’s to use their influence to get the Paris peace talks moving.

Although he has been rightly criticized for his many failings, President Nixon’s global “triangular” strategy paid off.  In 1973 the last American troops left Vietnam.  President Nixon was forced to resign from office in 1974.  In 1975, Congress disgracefully refused to aid the South Vietnamese and they were overrun.  Vietnam was united and independent.  But what about the dominoes?  Both Laos and Cambodia became Communist countries, but not so much as a result of China or Vietnam, as their own internal problems and corruption.

In 1978 full scale war broke out between Cambodia and Vietnam.  Vietnam easily won on Christmas day in 1978, the results of which were actually good because the ruthless Cambodian dictator, Pol Pot, had been forced out.

Would the Vietnamese move further west?  Would Thailand be the next domino?  After years of warning the Vietnamese to get out of Cambodia, China sent 80,000 troops across the northern border of Vietnam.  Eventually, the Chinese withdrew from Vietnam and the Vietnamese withdrew from Cambodia.

Was Richard Nixon’s trip to China the reason the domino theory did not become a reality?  It’s hard to say, but it clearly had an impact.

What is known is that the reason Communism isn’t spreading is because it doesn’t work.  Ultimately, the reason countries didn’t fall like dominoes, is because the  biggest enemy of Communism is Communism itself.

Since the Vietnam War, dominoes are actually falling the other way as Communist countries have fallen one by one to become more free market, Capitalist, and democratic forms of government.  People in these countries are experiencing new freedoms that we have taken for granted for over 200 years.

The men and women who died and served in the Cold Wars of Korea and Vietnam deserve a worldwide thank you.